Paper Infomation
Does Industrial Policy Affect Stock Price Crash Risk? — Evidence from the Change of the Five-Year Plan
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Author: Zhiwei Song
Abstract: Relying on the A-share listed companies in China from 2006 to 2015, this study analyzed the relationship between industrial policies and stock price crash risk using the PSM-DID double difference empirical analysis method, supplemented by exploring the roles played by factors such as property rights and degree of marketization in the impact mechanism. The results show that the implementation of industrial policy significantly increases the stock price crash risk of the underlying companies. In addition, compared with non-state-owned enterprises, state-owned enterprises are more susceptible to the influence of industrial policy, increasing stock price crash risk. The impact of industrial policy on stock price crash risk in different degrees of marketization is not significantly different. Further analysis shows that industrial policy mainly reduces stock price crash risk by lowering the corporate income tax rate. The higher the corporate income tax rate, the lower the stock price crash risk. This study not only enriches the understanding of the mechanism of stock price crash risk formation, but also provides strong evidence for the impact of industrial policy on the efficiency of capital allocation in China.
Keywords: Stock Price Crash Risk, Industrial Policy, Degree of Marketization, Property Rights
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