Paper Infomation
Research on Factors Influencing Pricing of Local Government Bond Issuance in China
Full Text(PDF, 74KB)
Author: Chenyang Li
Abstract: This paper explains the influencing mechanism of relevant factors on local government bond pricing from the theoretical level, and verifies its action path based on empirical method. 3458 local government bonds issued in the eastern region of China from 2018 to 2022 were selected as observational samples, and the issue interest rate and the spread of national bonds of the same maturity were taken as explained variables. By constructing a multi-dimensional explanatory variable system, the paper comprehensively considers the characteristics of bonds themselves, the level of local government finance, macroeconomic conditions and local development potential, and adopts the stepwise regression method to establish an econometric model for empirical test. The empirical research concludes that bond issuance scale, term, local government debt burden, industrial structure, CPI growth rate, and fixed asset investment growth are positively correlated with the issuance spread. Local fiscal self-sufficiency rate, per capita fiscal revenue, economic growth rate, M2 growth rate, and fiscal fund gap are negatively correlated. Based on this finding, a series of strategies and suggestions are proposed for the future development of China's local government bond market, aiming to provide valuable references for local governments in bond issuance and pricing.
Keywords: Local Government Bonds, Issuance Pricing, Issuance Spread, Heterogeneity Analysis
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