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Mathematical Computation

Mathematical Computation is an international comprehensive professional academic journal of Ivy Publisher, concerning the development of mathematical theory and computing application on the combination of mathematical theory and modern industrial technology. The main focus of the journal is the academic papers and comments of latest theoretical and apolitical mathematics improvement in the fields of nature science, engineering technology, economy... [More] Mathematical Computation is an international comprehensive professional academic journal of Ivy Publisher, concerning the development of mathematical theory and computing application on the combination of mathematical theory and modern industrial technology. The main focus of the journal is the academic papers and comments of latest theoretical and apolitical mathematics improvement in the fields of nature science, engineering technology, economy and science, report of latest research result, aiming at providing a good communication platform to transfer, share and discuss the theoretical and technical development of mathematics theory development for professionals, scholars and researchers in this field, reflecting the academic front level, promote academic change and foster the rapid expansion of mathematics theory and application technology.

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ISSN Print:2327-0519

ISSN Online:2327-0527

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Paper Infomation

Influencing Factors and Mortality Prediction of Covid-19 Contact Infection Rate in China

Full Text(PDF, 248KB)

Author: Xinping Yang, Wei Zheng, Yunyuan Yang, Jie Zhang

Abstract: Taking the COVID-19 data from 2020-1-23 to 3-21 days released by the China Health Protection Committee as the sample, the hospital remaining rate, mortality rate and cure rate are selected as covariates, and the contact infection rate is used as response variable to establish a high precision ADL model, results of return substitution show that the predicted value of contact infection rate almost coincides with the sample value, and shows three stages of change characteristics. After March 1, 2020, the overall trend is downward, stable below 12%. Main influencing factors of contact infection rate are analyzed quantitatively. Based on this, the ARIMA (1, 2, 2) model is established to analyze and predict the mortality change trend. The results showed that the domestic COVID-19 mortality rate is stable near 4 % after 2020-3-27.

Keywords: COVID-19, ADL Model, ARIMA Model, Contact, Infection Rate, Mortality Rate

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