Paper Infomation
Research of Heavy Rain 10-30 Day Extended Range Predictability Based on Chaos Theory
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Author: Zhiye Xia, Lisheng Xu, Yongqian Wang, Zhihong Liu
Abstract: The extended range predictability of severe weather on the time scale of 10-30 day is a hot topic recently. We have applied a novel method named nonlinear cross prediction error (NCPE) model to extended range predictability research. We took one hundred rainstorm events as research examples over the world, and the variable is Precipitable Water (PWAT) time series. Firstly, the movement error of local attractor in phase space was calculated in the different rainstorm stages based on NCPE model. And then, we analyzed the local change characteristics of the attractors’ movement, which corresponding to the rainstorm chaotic system on the base of Eigen-peaks. In the end, a preliminary conclusion was made that, validity periods for 1-2 day, 3-9 day and 10-30 day are 4, 22 and 74 events, respectively, it has 74 events that reach to the extended range time scale. It shows that, NCPE model is more effective to discover local movement characteristics of chaos system. This method provides a new idea for the extended range predictability of severe weather.
Keywords: Nonlinear Cross Prediction Error; Extended Range Predictability; Phase Space; Local Relative Dynamic Error
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